Lies, damned lies and shonky statistics
Below is the email I sent to ninemsn yesterday regarding the horrendous story they put out regarding a supposed decline in vaccination rates leading to an increase in diseases. Lies, damned lies, and shonky statistics at their worst. I have not heard back nor do I expect to. But so many of you sent me this story, I thought I would show you what i sent them. if you feel like writing, the woman's email is brigid.delaney@ninemsn.com.au.
Dear Brigid,
Thank you for your time on the phone earlier. I am writing because the story that appears on your website at http://news.ninemsn.com.au/health/1002130/disease-threat-as-vaccination-rate-drops is factually incorrect. I do show that it is an AAP story but still, it would be best to both check the accuracy of statements made in these stories as well as getting information from the other side of the issue whenever possible.
Below is a table showing the vaccination rates from 1989-1990 (there are other years involved here, but 1989-1990 is the range I would like to point out). As you can see, for pertussis (whooping cough), the rate of vaccination was only 71%. It is true that in 1989-1990, children vaccinated up to age 6 years were followed for this figure, but since children at that point of time got their last whooping cough vaccination at the age of 18 months, this cohort is comparable to the figures I will show you below this table for the current vaccination rate. Also, compare the rate of disease in 1991 (using the NNDSS data below) with the rate today and ask yourself why with only 71% vaccinated, we saw such a small number of cases, but now, with a supposed 83% vaccination rate (not a correct figure) we are seeing record outbreaks?
Below is a table showing the percentage of Australian children who are fully vaccinated against whooping cough as well as other diseases. Please note that both of these tables are produced by the Commonwealth Department of Health and are published in the Communicable Diseases Intelligence - a government publication.
As you can see, the rate for vaccination against pertussis has gone from a low of 71% in 1989-1990 to a high last year of 95.1%. The article states that the vaccination rate is now 83% for 4-year olds, but that is using data from the ACIR (the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register) - a database that is KNOWN to be incredibly inaccurate. In fact, the NCIRS (National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance) states that, "ACIR coverage estimates were assumed to be 'worst case scenarios', representing the minimum possible immunisation coverage." http://www.ncirs.usyd.edu.au/research/r-acir.html
The ACIR relies on doctors to accurately report the vaccination status of their patient's children and estimates are that as many as 25% of those reports are either incorrect or simply not submitted.
The figures from the CDI are much more accurate and rather than showing a falling rate of vaccination, they demonstrate that for all infectious diseases, Australia has record high levels of vaccination.
Below are the statistics on whooping cough infections in Australia. Please keep in mind that we have gone from a 71% vaccination rate to a 95% vaccination rate and have seen an increase in the number of cases of whooping cough from 318 across Australia to greater than 29,000 - the highest per capita incidence on record!
If the above table is too small for you to read, here is the web address where you can view it full size - http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/Rpt_3.cfm
My issue with this report (apart from the fact that only one side of this issue was discussed) is that it is completely inaccurate to say that Australia's level of vaccination is declining. As you can see, we have greater than 90% vaccination across the board - well above the levels we have been told would cause herd immunity and see these diseases wiped out.
Instead, we are seeing increasing vaccination along with increasing levels of infectious disease. And the unvaccinated are being blamed when the majority of those who get these illnesses are fully and appropriately vaccinated against them in every study that the Australian Government has actually conducted on vaccination rates in outbreaks.
I would appreciate it if you would check into this and let me know what you are able to find out and if you would like to do a follow-up report, that would be fantastic.